The incident that occurred is of a serious nature and will most likely have concrete consequences. From the perspective of air defence preparedness, the reaction of the North Atlantic Alliance was adequate. A technical malfunction, operator error, or loss of control over the drones due to radio-electronic interference cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is essential to await the statements of all involved parties, including the leadership of the Russian military. Such errors may also indicate that Russia is testing the level of air defence in Poland and other Alliance states, or that it is conducting reconnaissance or monitoring activities.

The basic structure of the Alliance’s integrated air and missile defence system (NATINAMDS) incorporates the capabilities of individual member states, which monitor the air and ground situation — for example through AWACS aircraft — and respond in a prescribed manner in the event of an airspace violation. The response against the drones was thus adequate not only from Poland’s perspective, but also in terms of the assets provided by other countries. However, it should be noted that the air defence system is significantly more expensive than the systems employed by drones, and the main challenge remains establishing a defensive line to prevent drone incursions, as well as the deployment, quantity, and effective use of surveillance assets. At present, Ukraine is not in a position to fully control its own airspace, which provides Russia with opportunities to carry out attacks. Moreover, the use of anti-drone systems is currently financially inefficient.

The activation of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty takes place only based on the unanimous consent of all member states, and such a decision is preceded by consultations under Article 4, which are convened if any member considers the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of them to be under threat.

The full interview can be found here (approx. 01:02 h; in Czech).

Author: CSMSS